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Market Week Ahead: US PMI Report, Eurozone CPI, and Canada Report

US and UK continue to grow in slow improvements despite Covid. This week we’ll be focusing on US PMIs and the upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls. Eurozone and Germany will release their CPI as Canada publishes GDP and job numbers.

  • German CPI: Monday, All Day. German inflation rose to 0.7% in April, above the forecast of 0.5%. CPI is expected to slow to 0.3% in May.
  • Eurozone Inflation Report: Tuesday, 9:00. Eurozone inflation has been accelerating in recent months. Headline CPI is projected to rise to 1.9% for May and Core CPI is expected to tick higher to 0.9%.
  • Canada GDP: Tuesday, 12:30. Canada releases GDP on a monthly basis.  After a weak gain of 0.4% in March, the economy is projected to show a gain of 1.0% in April.
  • US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Tuesday, 14:00. Manufacturing continues to show strong growth. The PMI is expected to remain unchanged at 61.5. The neutral 50-level separates contraction from expansion.
  • US ISM Services PMI: Thursday, 14:00. The PMI is forecast to climb to 62.9 in May, up marginally from 62.7.
  • US Employment Report: Friday, 12:30. The market is projecting a strong NFP report for May, with an estimate of 621 thousand, compared to 266 thousand previously.  The unemployment rate is expected to nudge lower to 5.9%, down from 6.1%. However, wage growth is forecast to come in at -0.4%, after a reading of +0.3%.
  • Canada Employment Report: Friday, 12:30. The economy shed 207.1 thousand jobs in April and we will now receive the May data. The unemployment rate is expected to tick upwards to 8.2% in May, up from 8.1%.

TD Securities with what they expect on the upcoming NFP

  • Payrolls probably rose strongly by pre-covid standards but we see some downside risk versus the consensus again this month 
  • Forecast implies a still-sizeable 7.7m net decline from the pre-COVID level
  • The unemployment rate probably resumed its downtrend after a surprising rise in April

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