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Market Week Ahead: Reserve Bank, Interest Rate and NFP

The first full week of October promises several significant data releases and events over the next few days, including the September US NFP report on Friday.

AUD RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA RATE DECISION

At the start of October, according to Australia overnight index swaps, there is a 28% chance of a 25-bps rate hike through the end of the year – an insignificant change.

The RBA had previously pledged that it would keep rates at their current level or lower for three years starting in March 2020.

NZD RESERVE BANK OF NEW ZEALAND RATE DECISION

Data emerging that New Zealand COVID-19 infections jumped to their highest level since June, markets are quickly downgrading their expectations that the RBNZ will raise rates when it meets in the coming days.

According to overnight index swaps for New Zealand, there is an 81% chance of a 25-bps rate hike when the RBNZ meets on Wednesday.

MXN INFLATION RATE (SEP)

According to a Bloomberg News survey, the September Mexican inflation rate (CPI) is expected to show a jump deceleration to +5.99% from +5.59% (y/y).

CAD EMPLOYMENT CHANGE & UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (SEP)

Following two blistering hot jobs reports in July and August, the Canadian labor market will show further signs of moderation in September. According to a Bloomberg News survey, consensus forecasts are looking for a still-solid reading of +65K

USD NONFARM PAYROLLS & UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (SEP)

The main issue for the US Dollar when it comes to the September US Nonfarm Payrolls report is whether or not the US labor market regained its momentum after a surprisingly weak August reading that came in at +235K (versus expectations closer to +650K).

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