Global market sentiment wobbled this past week after initial euphoria on disappointing US jobs reports that further cooled Fed tapering expectations.
US inflation jumped in April and this week’s CPI data from the eurozone and Canada is also expected to show an increase in inflation.
Economic Events to Watch This Week
Eurozone GDP: Tuesday, 9:00. The eurozone economy contracted by 0.6% in Q4, its third decline in four quarters. Another decline of 0.6% is expected in the first quarter.
Eurozone inflation Report: Wednesday, 9:00. We are seeing increasing inflationary pressures in the eurozone, which could force the ECB to reevaluate its ultra-accommodative monetary policy. Eurozone headline CPI has been rising and is expected to reach 1.6%, up from 1.3%. However, core CPI is forecast to tick lower to 0.8%, down from 0.9%.
Canada CPI Report: Wednesday, 12:30. Headline CPI (YoY) is expected to rise to 4.3% in April, up from 3.2%. BoC Core CPI, the central bank’s preferred gauge, is projected to rise to 1.3%, slightly lower than the March read of 1.4%.
FOMC Meeting Minutes: Wednesday, 18:30. The Fed has insisted that no changes are afoot with regard to policy, despite the surge in inflation. Investors will be closely monitoring the minutes to see if this script is reiterated. Any hint of a tightening in policy could send the US dollar higher.
Canada ADP Employment Report: Thursday, 12:30. The March ADP report indicated that the economy created 634 thousand new jobs, an outstanding number. Will we see another sharp gain in April?
Bank of Canada Financial System Review: Thursday, 15:00. The Bank of Canada publishes its overview of the financial system twice a year. Apart from data about the bank’s situation, the publication also includes economic data.
US Manufacturing PMI: Friday, 13:45. Manufacturing remains well into the expansionary territory and the March PMI improved to 60.5 (revised lower from 60.5). Another strong release is expected in April, with a forecast of 60.4 points.