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Market Week Ahead: Dow Jones, US Dollar, Bitcoin

Global market sentiment remained rosy this past week. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite climbed about 1.5%, 1.7%, and 2.1% respectively.

European equities also shined, with the FTSE 100 and DAX closing 2.69% and 1.95% respectively. In Asia, the Hang Seng outperformed, rising 5.69%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 increased 3.64%.

With the cheery mood, haven-linked currencies underperformed. These included the US Dollar and Japanese Yen. Rising Treasury yields meant that USD/JPY touched its highest since late 2018.

The sentiment-linked Australian and New Zealand Dollars shined. Taking a look at commodities, crude oil prices continued gaining, with WTI prices touching the highest since October 2014.

The surge in oil continues to reflect a global supply crunch. China has resorted to releasing Australian coal from storage after an unofficial ban on imports amid geopolitical tensions. Meanwhile, solid corporate earnings thus far have likely been bolstering sentiment. The US announced it will open international travel for vaccinated people on November 8th.

Front-end bond yields are on the rise, especially in the United States. FOMC minutes and CPI data this past week highlighted rising shelter costs, which could remain sticky amid supply shortages with elevated construction and labor costs. Data on this front will cross the wires this week. Rising returns on safer bond yields may continue slowly undermining riskier assets like stocks.

The week starts off with New Zealand CPI data and Chinese third-quarter GDP. Given that the RBNZ is probably the most hawkish developed central bank, NZD/USD could see some volatility. Being the world’s second-largest economy, a slowdown in China risks reverberating outwards, especially following issues in its real estate market. Bitcoin nears its record high after the SEC paved a path for futures trading of the cryptocurrency.

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